NBA Uncategorized

Blind Stats Comparison

*Stats were from January 6, 2022.

Let me start out by saying this isn’t a perfect way to judge players for a few reasons, but regardless it gives a pretty accurate representation of how good these players are. They’re all from this year.

Player A: 

Roles and Positions: Offensive Role = Primary Ballhandler, Defensive Role = Hidden, Position (8% SF, 76% PF, 15% C), Position = Forward

Per 100: 37.2 points (49.4 FG%, 51.0 2P%, 36.2 3P%, 85.8 FT%, 51.4 EFG%, 58.4 TS%, 0.110 3PAr, 0.406 FTr, 82 SQ), 6.2 assists (1.2 SecAST, 13 PotAST, 17.0 AST Points Created, 8.0 AdjAST, 0.4 ScreenAST, 21.9 AST%), 7.8 BoxCreation, 5.7 Passer Rating, 2.9 Turnovers (8.3 TOV%), 48.3 Load, 6.9 TRB (1.0 ORB, 5.0 DRB, 1.4 CRB, 7.9 TRB%), 0.9 steals (1.3 STL%), 2.1 deflections, 0.4 blocks (0.8 BLK%), 45.9 DFG% (61.7 DFG% < 6Ft, 53.1 2PDFG%, 27.7 3PDFG%), 49 Defense Versatility, 3.2 Fouls, 1.7 Portability

Advanced: +3.3 RAPTOR (+4.0 OFF, -0.7 DEF) and +3.5 RAPTOR WAR, +4.3 EPM (+3.7 OFF, +0.5 DEF) and +5.6 estamated Wins, +1.87 LEBRON (+2.08 OFF, -0.20 DEF) and +3.1 Wins Added, +2.5 BPM (+3.3 OFF, -0.7 DEF) and +1.3 VORP, +0.70 DARKO (+1.75 OFF, -1.05 DEF), +1.94 CraftedPM (+2.83 OFF, -0.89 DEF), +4.3 WinShares (0.184 WS/48), +17.0 On/Off, 23.4 PER

Analysis: Interesting position/role profile, although he plays most of his minutes at PF, he still functions as a primary ballhandler. As a scorer, you wish he would take a higher concentration of 3’s, but the ability to get to the FT line is impressive. And it’s not that he is a bad shooter: since he is shooting a respectable 36.2% from 3, you would like him to attempt more 3’s. Fairly good passing/playmaking numbers, but a 3PAr lower than Westbrook hurts your gravity. He isn’t a special playmaker by any means, and low turnovers are a nice bonus. Defense is extremely hard to measure but having your defensive role being listed as “Hidden,” is concerning. Steals and deflections are nothing special, and neither are his block numbers. His rebounding numbers are not good for someone who plays a majority of his minutes at PF. Something interesting to me is his lack of portability which goes along with his lack of gravity. The advanced stats show a very good player, but not in the top tier of NBA players. His defensive impact numbers lean slightly negative, while his offensive impact stats range from +1.75-+4. To summarize, Player A is an impactful offensive player with an ability to score relatively efficiently and get to the FT line, but his lack of attempted 3’s and defensive impact holds him down.

Player B: 

Roles and Positions: Offensive Role = Versatile Big, Defensive Role = Hang Back Big, Position (100% C), Position = Big 

Per 100: 39.0 points (56.4 FG%, 63.2 2P%, 34.8 3P%, 77.6 FT%, 60.6 EFG%, 63.8 TS%, 0.239 3PAr, 0.298 FTr, 52 SQ), 10.6 assists (1.5 SecAST, 20.0 PotAST, 27.1 AST Points Created, 13.2 AdjAST, 12.0 ScreenAST, 41.1 AST%), 13.8 BoxCreation, 8.2 Passer Rating, 5.6 Turnovers (15.5 TOV%), 59.1 Load, 21.5 TRB (4.0 ORB, 17.6 DRB, 9.9 CRB, 24.1 TRB%), 2.1 steals (2.1 STL%), 3.8 deflections, 1.2 blocks (2.3 BLK%), 46.5 DFG% (60.7 DFG% < 6Ft, 48.9 2PDFG%, 37.6 3PDFG%), 2 Defense Versatility, 3.8 Fouls, 8.2 Portability

Advanced: +14.9 RAPTOR (+7.5 OFF, +7.4 DEF), and +9.3 RAPTOR WAR, +9.3 EPM (+6.8 OFF, +2.5 DEF) and +8.5 estamated Wins, +6.71 LEBRON (+4.65 OFF, +2.06 DEF) and +5.4 Wins Added, +13.4 BPM (+8.7 OFF, +4.7 DEF) and +3.9 VORP, +5.58 DARKO (+4.0 OFF, +1.58 DEF), +9.35 CraftedPM (+6.6 OFF, +2.75 DEF), +5.7 WinShares (0.271 WS/48), +24.0 On/Off, +32.3 PER

Analysis: Purely looking at position/role profile nothing stands out, but a further look at his statistical profile combined with his position/role profile is interesting. Position/role profile would suggest something of a stretch big which isn’t wrong. His TS% stands out while doing so on high volume. Although he doesn’t make a crazy amount of 3’s, he still shoots them at a decent rate especially for a “Big Man.” Not too much to criticize, but if I’m nit-picking I would like to see him get to the FT line at a higher rate. His passing/playmaking numbers are amazing with just about top-of-the-line everything. Box Creation, POT AST, and AdjAST all stand out. His rebounding numbers are also impressive because he racks up ORB and CRB. He also forces a few turnovers a game, while playing some solid defense at the rim. He is also fairly portable. If there was an advanced stats king he would be it. Everything about these numbers is beyond ridiculous. He leads the league in just about every major advanced stat. Overall an extremely nice profile with very few (if any) flaws.

Player C:

Roles and Positions: Offensive Role = Primary Ballhandler, Defensive Role = Off Ball Wing, Position (100% PG), Positon = Point

Per 100: 40.4 points (46.0 FG%, 50.2 2P%, 38.1 3P%, 90.2 FT%, 52.7 EFG%, 58.8 TS%, 0.350 3PAr, 0.321 FTr, 82 SQ), 13.6 assists (1.3 SecAST, 24.9 PotAST, 34.8 AST Points Created, 16.6 AdjAST, 0.1 ScreenAST, 48.1 AST%), 18.8 BoxCreation, 8.7 Passer Rating, 5.7 Turnovers (14.2 TOV%), 71.6 Load, 5.6 TRB (1.1 ORB, 4.4 DRB, 0.6 CRB, 6.1 TRB%), 1.3 steals (1.2 STL%), 2.6 deflections, 0.1 BLK (0.2 BLK%), 45.3 DFG% (69.2 DFG% < 6Ft, 56.6 2PDFG%, 30.8  37.6 3PDFG%), 34 Defense Versatility, 6.2 Portability

Advanced: +4.7 RAPTOR (+8.6 OFF, -3.9 DEF) and +4.5 RAPTOR WAR, +4.7 EPM (+6.9 OFF, -2.1 DEF) and 6.0 estamated Wins, +1.86 LEBRON (+4.47 OFF, -2.61 DEF) and +3.1 Wins Added, +4.9 BPM (+7.2 OFF, -2.2 DEF) and +2.0 VORP, +2.91 DARKO (+5.26 OFF, -2.35 DEF), +3.67 CraftedPM (+6.89 OFF, -3.22 DEF), +4.3 WinShares (0.179 WS/48), +10.0 On/Off, 26.2 PER

Analysis: Not many better offensive players in the league. Just an outrageous offensive profile and really pretty flawless. High volume, plus efficiency compared to league average, and an awesome playmaker. As a scorer, he takes 3’s and gets to the FT line. You wish he would shoot a little bit better from 2, but his efficiency is still above average. His passing/playmaking is otherworldly, and he is clearly a top-tier playmaker. Defensively he clearly lacks but does get a few steals and deflections. Advanced stats tell the same story, top tier offensively, but not so good defensively. My final thoughts are offensive engines are rare to find, and this guy clearly does it at a high level because of his ability to score from 3 and at the rack while being a top-tier playmaker. For him to make the leap to the next tier of players he has to improve defensively and to a lesser degree improve his efficiency from inside the arc.

My rankings would be B-C-A… how would you rank them?

A: DeMar DeRozan 

B: Nikola Jokic

C: Trae Young

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